By Chris Black, commercial director at LeasePlan UK

Chris Black, commercial director at LeasePlan UK

In 2020, when the pandemic first took hold, there was a great deal of speculation in the automotive industry about how day-to-day transport would look after things had returned to normal. With those discussions in mind, we at LeasePlan UK made a few predictions, considering what impact the move towards working from home, the improvements in EV technology and the desire for cleaner air in our cities might all collectively have.

Two years later, we’re revisiting those predictions to see how many rang true – and which are still a little way off.

Fewer but longer commutes 

At the time we made our predictions, there was plenty of debate surrounding whether we would want to continue working from home once the pandemic was over. One piece of research suggested that over three-quarters of us would want to strike a balance, splitting our time between the office and home. Our prediction, off the back of this data, was that fewer days in the office would lead to an increased tolerance in the length of our commutes. In this scenario, we expected to see people making fewer but longer journeys.

Fast-forward to 2022, and it is evident that hybrid working is here to stay. Many companies are now looking at how they can re-think their office spaces, and some are even investing in virtual workplaces. For example, all of the Big Four accounting firms now offer hybrid to their employees, as have big UK employers like Reach PLC and Schroders.

What’s more, our prediction that hybrid employees will be willing to commute slightly further has played out as expected, with a piece of research conducted towards the end of 2021 by NerdWallet finding that nine-in-10 hybrid workers (92%) would be willing to commute further.

A push towards greener cities

A noticeable side-effect of lockdown was that the reduced amount of traffic on the roads meant we enjoyed cleaner air. In order to preserve this, we expected a significant stepping up in the existing efforts to make our cities greener through a faster transition to EV.

This is coming to pass. As the technology and infrastructure to support EVs improves, fleet managers are now increasingly looking to speed up their electrification programmes. However, widespread disruption to the global supply chain caused by a semiconductor shortage has resulted in long delays for some vehicle types, leaving some fleet-operating businesses frustrated at their lack of progress.

Despite these challenges, the market has defied the odds and continued to grow at breakneck speed. In July this year, total sales of EVs in 2022 had already passed the total for the entirety of 2020. According to the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, EVs now command a 14% market share – up from 8.4% at the same time last year.

More than ever, drivers are starting to think seriously about making the switch. In our recent study of 2,000 drivers, two thirds said they would consider an EV for their next vehicle. Meanwhile, our own orderbook continues to be dominated by EVs. We expect this to ramp up even further in the next few years as we approach the 2030 deadline for the ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles.

What comes next?

Predicting change is never straightforward, and with a global pandemic on our hands, there was no way of knowing quite how our day-to-day transport was going to be affected. What’s reassuring, though, is seeing how the pandemic has presented opportunities for change in the UK transport industry, particularly in the name of sustainability. At LeasePlan, we’re committed to playing our part by leading the transition to EV and aiming to get everyone driving emission free by 2030.