Drivers of nearly 700,000 cars in Greater London could be liable to pay the ULEZ charge when the zone is expanded this summer; far higher than Transport for London (TfL) estimates.

The number of drivers affected once the zone expands is likely to be far higher when considering vehicles entering from bordering counties

TfL estimates that around 160,000 non-compliant cars a day currently drive in the area that will become part of the expanded zone later this summer.

But a freedom of information (FOI) request by the RAC to the DVLA revealed a total of 691,559 licensed cars in the whole of Greater London were either petrol cars first registered prior to January 2006 or diesel cars registered prior to September 2015 – the key dates for meeting ULEZ standards.

This figure rises to 851,065 when counting all non-compliant vehicles – including vans – rather than solely cars. It’s believed only about 80% of vans driving in outer London comply with the ULEZ rules.

And the number of drivers affected once the zone expands is likely to be far higher when considering vehicles entering from bordering counties such as Kent, Hertfordshire and Essex, according to the RAC.

The zone will expand London-wide from 29 August this year in a move to encourage people to switch from older, more polluting vehicles. It will operate across all London boroughs up to the existing Low Emission Zone boundary, more than doubling the zone’s existing area in a move to tackle the triple threats of air pollution, the climate emergency and congestion.

Latest TfL data indicates that nine in 10 cars (90.5%) seen driving in outer London on an average day meet the zone standards, up from 88.5% in May 2022  – and it expects that the proportion will be higher when the zone expands. But its figures are based on camera analysis – and the RAC says its FOI on DVLA driver data suggests “there will be a massive financial impact on motorists and businesses”

RAC head of roads policy Nicholas Lyes added: “We desperately need more co-ordination between the Mayor and the Government to help small businesses, tradespeople, NHS staff and carers who have no choice but to drive into the expanded ULEZ for work purposes from outside Greater London. Consideration should also be given to those who work at night when public transport is greatly reduced in the outer boroughs.

“Changing to a compliant vehicle at such short notice simply won’t be something many will be able to afford, especially during a cost-of-living crisis and at a time when second-hand car prices are so high.”

Scrappage scheme ‘simply not big enough for the scale of the job’

The RAC also says the Mayor’s current vehicle scrappage scheme is akin to using “a plughole to drain an Olympic-sized swimming pool” – and it’s urged for “more creativity” from London’s Mayor and his team.

“We believe he should consider introducing an additional one-year sunset period for certain key workers or a scheme where TfL partners with a leasing company to provide discounted, ULEZ-compliant vehicles to smaller businesses or traders, enabling them to avoid daily charges while still reducing roadside emissions,” continued Lyes.

Drivers of affected vehicles who do not pay the £12.50 daily charge will a fine of up to £160 – and both the RAC and TfL are urging drivers to check now to see if their vehicle is ULEZ-compliant using the TfL checker tool.

The Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) operates 24/7 and is in operation every day of the year, except Christmas Day. It applies to cars, motorcycles, vans and specialist vehicles (up to and including 3.5 tonnes) and minibuses (up to and including 5 tonnes).

Vehicles are required to have a minimum emissions standard of Euro 4 for petrol cars/vans and Euro 6 for diesels.

The original ULEZ scheme was introduced in April 2019 to cover central London before being expanded to the North/South Circular boundaries in October 2021.

An imperative to clean up the capital’s toxic air

The Mayor of London and TfL remain resolute that the expansion of the ULEZ is vital to tackle the congestion and air pollution issues. TfL figures suggest the ULEZ expansion will save nearly 27,000 tonnes of CO2 in outer London in its first year, more than double that which the central London ULEZ achieved in its first year of operation.

The Mayor has also committed to the introduction of a million extra bus kilometres in outer London to strengthen alternatives to driving.

Christina Calderato, TfL’s director of transport strategy and policy, said: “There is an imperative to clean up the capital’s toxic air given the impacts on public health and deaths attributable to pollution. To support people in making greener journeys the Mayor’s £110m scrappage scheme helps those that need to drive switch to cleaner vehicles and has the option of an annual bus and tram pass. The commitment to a million extra bus kilometres in outer London makes the already extensive network an even more attractive alternative to the car.”