The fall in carbon emissions from cars needed to meet UK climate change goals is likely to require work to reduce overall travel by drivers as well as a widespread shift to electric vehicles.

The RAC Foundation says the climate change target could be met without car drivers cutting mileage – but there’s no guarantee

That’s according to the RAC Foundation, which has warned that the UK’s ageing vehicle parc will mean that ICE vehicles will be on the road for years to come and has called for concerted action.

The transport policy and research organisation believes it’s likely a twofold approach will be needed to rethink both drivers’ vehicle choices and their usage.

As such, it’s stressed to drivers that their next car is “critical” from the point of view of the planet and not to make snap decisions about not going electric.

But it’s also urged the Government to think about ways to incentivise both the shift to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and a reduction in total car mileage.

A monumentally steep challenge

Its viewpoint is backed by analysis of the Climate Change Committee’s Balanced Net Zero Pathway, which plots a course to net zero that’s compliant with its Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037).

This requires annual CO2 emissions from cars to fall from about 57 million tonnes in 2021 to around 34 million tonnes by 2030; a reduction of 40%.

While this could be achieved by many possible scenarios, meeting the target without reducing mileage among the millions of car owners in the UK will require a massive ramp up in battery electric vehicle take-up.

In fact, the modelling – which takes 2019 as the best pre-Covid representative base year – reveals that, if the total number of car-driven miles stays steady or continues to grow, then battery electric cars would potentially have to account for some 35% of the total car fleet in 2030 (around 13.5 million electric cars compared to a projected 38.6 million cars in total), and these would have to account for at least 37% of all car miles driven.

To put this in perspective, latest government data shows there are currently 33.2 million cars licensed in the UK of which 548,000 (less than 2%) are pure battery electric.

In 2022, according to the SMMT, 1.6 million new cars were sold in the UK, 267,000 (16.6%) of them pure battery electric.

Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said: “Based on current trends getting the car fleet up to 35% pure battery-electric by 2030 without reducing driven miles looks like a monumentally steep challenge, like climbing Everest on a bad day.”

A further factor is the rising average age of cars on the road. In 1994 it stood at six years and two months. By the end of 2021 the average age was eight years and four months.

The next car people buy is critical

The RAC Foundation has urged drivers to think twice before being put off BEVs and defaulting to an internal combustion car engine.

Gooding said: “From the point of view of the planet the next car people buy is critical.

“For those thinking of going electric but wavering, perhaps put off by the up-front price, there is a case for pausing to see how things play out in the next year or two, rather than falling back to petrol.

“People sticking with petrol or diesel should go for the greenest, cleanest model they can, remembering that every fossil-fuelled car bought today is going to be with us for at least a decade and probably far longer.”

But the transport policy and research organisation also urged the Government to rethink EV incentives.

“Despite the challenge of austerity, if the Chancellor was canny, he could use VED to push car buyers more firmly towards electric options, encourage petrol-car purchasers to choose models offering the best-in-class fuel-efficiency and in doing so actually raise some cash he could then use to cut the costs of electric motoring.”

And Gooding also suggested it’s likely that wider action will be required to cut back driver mileage – and said a smart approach by the Government could dovetail this with incentivising public transport.

“Bearing in mind that annual mileage per-car was already falling way before Covid maybe planning for a reduction in total car mileage wouldn’t be as contentious as some fear, particularly if accompanied by complementary policies, such as support for public transport.”

The Scottish Government has already set a target of reducing car kilometres travelled by 20% by 2030, announced in its Climate Change Plan update in 2020. Earlier this month, it launched a new Mobility and Scrappage Fund – offering cash incentives and Travel Better vouchers for households removing cars from the roads, supporting its vision.

The Welsh Government has also set an aim to reduce the number of car miles travelled per person, in this case by 10% by 2030 (from 2019), and to increase the proportion of trips by sustainable modes.

Campaign group Transport for Qualify of Life published a paper in December 2021 saying that climate targets won’t be met unless we reduce car traffic significantly over the next 10 years, adding that there was growing evidence from other sources to support its work.

TfQL called for the UK Government to set a binding traffic reduction target for England, similar to those set by the Scottish and Welsh Governments. It added that measures to cut car use would go with the grain of some recent trends, including reducing car use amongst younger people over the last 25 years.