December edition of Black Book to show biggest single fall in values since June 2011

Trade price reductions were tracked throughout the month by Black Book Live, which reveals that across the whole market the average value reduction over the past four weeks has been around £300 per car, with a sharper downward dip during week three of the month than at any other time this year.

A slowdown in the final quarter of the year is typical in the used car retail and trade sector and Black Book Live notes that this one follows a generally stronger year-to-date performance than last year. Values up until the end of the third quarter of 2014 had in fact fallen 2% less than over the same period in 2013; however subsequent movements now mean that the overall year has caught up with January-December 2013.

Derren Martin, senior editor of Black Book Live, said: ‘Despite our warnings as far back as late September that a slowdown would come, the rate at which values have fallen during November seems to have caused some alarm in the market.

‘Although this realignment of values is basically a game of catch-up there is no escaping the fact that for users of static monthly trade value guides the Book drop into December is a large one – indeed the highest since the summer of 2011, over 40 months ago.

‘The reasons for the drop in wholesale prices are fourfold. Firstly, supply levels have increased due to the influx of part-exchanges and fleet returns generated by September’s 10-year registration high, followed by further high registrations in October.

‘Secondly, retail demand has dropped off as it tends to do in the run up to Christmas, but this year it has been more widely reported.

‘Thirdly, many retail forecourts are full – the simple fact is there are more cars being advertised than there were at the same time in 2013 and little or no requirement to replenish stocks.

‘Finally, used car prices are high. Depreciation year-to-date has been less pronounced than it was to this point last year and so prices are generally higher than they were 12 months ago.

‘Rather than the market meltdown that some people fear, we believe it is more a case of unusually high prices ultimately proving to be unsustainable.’ 

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Natalie Middleton

Natalie has worked as a fleet journalist for over 20 years, previously as assistant editor on the former Company Car magazine before joining Fleet World in 2006. Prior to this, she worked on a range of B2B titles, including Insurance Age and Insurance Day.