Used trade values have fallen a further 4.2% in November at the three-year point, as prices “continue to realign considerably”, according to Cap HPI.

Derren Martin, head of valuations at Cap HPI

The latest fall – equivalent to £775 – mirrors October’s 4.2% decline and means that average trade values have dropped by 8.4% or £1,625 in the last two months alone.

It’s historically the largest fall recorded by the company at this time of year but Cap asserts that this is not a crash and points out that average values remain around 15% above where they were at the start of 2021 for petrol and diesel vehicles. Meanwhile, electric vehicles, on average, are around 20% lower.

Derren Martin, head of valuations, added: “It is not uncommon for values to drop in November, with movements of 3.1% in 2014, 2.6% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2020, although there have also been some stronger years when volumes were lower, particularly over the last two years.

“This year is, however, the largest drop going into December that we have on record. There is no escaping that a realignment, not a crash, is ongoing.”

Values held up better at the one-year age point, dropping by a lower 3.3% in November, equivalent to around £1,000.

Older vehicles performed better, with a 2.6% drop at the 10-year point – cars valued below £5,000 have dropped by 2.4%, less than £90 on average.

SUVs fell by 4.9%, or around £940 on average, with small and medium models being the worst affected, with a drop of 10% in two months.

Petrol and diesel values at three years have, on average, dropped by similar amounts, although diesel has declined by slightly less. Electric vehicles have reduced by 3.3% or £750 – marking the third consecutive month in a row that battery-powered cars have been the best-performing fuel type, albeit in a falling market.

Derren Martin concluded: “Values will likely continue to drop in the run-up to Christmas. While retailers’ appetite may increase slightly as they look to buy for an anticipated increase in consumer demand, this is unlikely to be in large quantities and not by enough to eat too much into the volumes that are present in the wholesale market.

“Since Cap Live was introduced in 2012, December has experienced an average drop of just 1.3%, with the largest being 2.2% in 2014. With the current realignment ongoing, however, and consumer demand only likely to increase after Christmas, it would be no surprise for a downward movement in excess of these figures.”

44% of dealers think used buyers will stick with petrol and diesel for longer

Startline has said the ICE ban delay could have little effect on the used car market as availability of petrol and diesel models falls away

More than four out of 10 dealers (44%) think used car buyers will stick with petrol and diesel cars for longer following the Government’s decision to delay the new car electrification deadline to 2035.

The survey, carried out for Startline Motor Finance’s November Used Car Tracker, also reveals that 29% believe the move will mean the used electric vehicle market will take longer to develop while 19% forecast that consumer demand for EVs will fall.

Additionally, 24% of dealers now believe it is more likely that motorists will buy a hybrid as a stepping stone to full electrification while 20% believe that EV prices will fall further in addition to recent reductions.

But 24% say that carmakers are already committed to electrification by 2030, so the effect will be limited.

Paul Burgess, CEO at Startline, added: “There is a quite a lot of evidence to support this point of view. The main issue with the Government’s 2035 move is that manufacturer plans to electrify over the course of the decade are already largely set in stone, based on not just the UK’s previous 2030 deadline but also the ZEV mandate and a whole range of much bigger global production projections.

“It could be that the government announcement could have little effect because supply of EVs will continue to ramp up quickly while availability of petrol and diesel cars falls away at a similar rate. Also, there is the possibility that a Labour government is elected next year and reverses the move anyway.”