Zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate sales targets for electric vans could need revising as early as next year, FleetCheck has warned.

FleetCheck says the gap between the real van market and ZEV mandate projections is likely to become clear by 2026

Peter Golding, managing director at the fleet software specialist, said that electric van sales in the first quarter of 2025 were less than half what was needed, and there was no reason to believe they would improve dramatically soon.

The zero emissions target for the van market this year is 16% – but demand for new battery electric vans (BEVs) weighing up to 4.25 tonnes only reached 8.3% in Q1 and FleetCheck warned that even the best sales month seen so far has not exceeded 10%.

“There would have to be a decisive shift through Q2 to Q4 to hit the Government’s target and there is no sign such a change is coming,” Golding stated.

“For 2026, the target increases to 24% and again, it’s almost impossible to conceive that the market is going to gain the necessary momentum to get anywhere near that figure.”

Golding also said that the recent ZEV mandate revisions “don’t go far enough” to resolve electric van issues.

“The potential shortfall fines to manufacturers are now £15,000 per unit but the Government insists that these will not need to be paid because of inbuilt flexibilities, including recent changes to allow trading off car versus van sales, but that’s just storing up further pressures for the future. It’s an exercise in can kicking, not a solution.”

The FleetCheck MD warned that the gap between the real van market and ZEV mandate projections were likely to become clear by 2026 – showing that further action will need to be taken.

The business, and others in the fleet sector, have long been stressing the need for material, effective incentives for operators to make the transition to electric vans, as already seen in the company car sector.

“The underlying fault line, which to be fair is one the Government inherited, is that the ZEV mandate is supply side based, when what the electric van market needs is a boost to demand.”

Additionally, Golding added, there were some signs that zero-emissions projects in general were potentially going to become a more prominent political issue.

“While I’d underline that FleetCheck as an organisation is in favour of working towards net zero, there are some moves to make the entire subject of zero emissions much more contentious. Certainly, this is something that Nigel Farage is talking about now and he is very good at placing pressure on government policy.

“It may be that, in a year or so, a further relaxation of the ZEV mandate could be something that this Labour administration perceives as not just sound industrial policy for the motor industry, but also something that has political value.”