Used car values record strongest June since 2009, finds Cap HPI

A strong market in June saw average used car values fall by just 0.1% or £25 at three years and 60,000 miles, according to the experts at Cap HPI.

This month has been the strongest June for the used car sector since 2009, according to Cap

Since 2012, excluding the Covid-affected years, the average movement in June has been a decline of 1.2%, and this month has been the strongest June since 2009.

Derren Martin, director of valuations of Cap HPI, said that, as expected, there had been little to no impact from distractions such as the Euros or the build-up to the general election on 4 July.

“The air of positivity for used car retail that has been present all year has, if anything, increased in June. With interest rates stabilising, inflation falling, and many consumers accepting cost-of-living concerns as the new normal, the appetite to purchase has been omnipresent.

“That is not to say that demand has been through the roof, as it was for prolonged periods in 2020 and 2021 when it was pent-up, but it has been consistently ‘okay to good’ for most retailers.”

Cap figures show petrol cars remain the most desired by consumers, although hybrids and plug-in hybrids continue to be popular for consumers “not quite ready to take the plunge” and buy a BEV.

Convertibles and coupé cabriolets both increased by just under 1%, benefiting from the usual seasonality factor, and as time goes on, the reduction in choice as manufacturers concentrate on producing more SUVs, particularly EVs.

Some higher-value cars, such as the Mercedes AMG C-Class Cabriolet, increased in value, by 5% or c.£1,500, helped by low volume.

Average petrol values went up at both the one- and three-year age points, with diesel cars and both types of hybrids dropping negligibly.

However, BEVs dropped by 1.7% on average, equivalent to £350. Whilst they remain the worst-performing fuel type regarding value retention, Cap noted that June’s Live movement down was significantly less compared to the previous three months.

Analysing all the BEVs valued at the three-year/60,000-mile age profile, 68% experienced a decrease in value, 25% remained stable, and 7% saw an increase in value. This is an improvement from the previous month, where 89% of BEVs saw a decrease in value, and only 1% saw an increase.

Martin also said there was no reason to predict an end to the strong months experienced so far in 2024.

“Volumes remain on the low side, particularly those under four years old, and demand from consumers is steady. History shows that general elections cause little disruption, similar to large sporting events.

“The average movement in Live in July, since the daily product was introduced in 2012, is a 1.1% drop, excluding 2020 and 2021. July can often be similar to June, and this year we are not expecting downward moves anywhere near the averages, and we are expecting a similar pattern to June. There is the possibility that there could be a slight average increase in values, but if not, a small movement down should occur, reflecting a positive market.

“Some models within particular fuel types will remain challenging, and a close eye on Cap Live is again recommended.”

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Natalie Middleton

Natalie has worked as a fleet journalist for over 20 years, previously as assistant editor on the former Company Car magazine before joining Fleet World in 2006. Prior to this, she worked on a range of B2B titles, including Insurance Age and Insurance Day.

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