Sudden increase in LCV stock to impact on prices and conversions
The company says that due to economic and business pressures, operators are bringing vehicles to market well ahead of their planned defleet dates, adding to already high volumes from the corporate and leasing sector.
Duncan Ward, BCA's general manager – commercial vehicles, said: 'Following months of short supply in the market we are suddenly faced with an abundance of stock, just at a time when demand is easing ahead of the Christmas break.'
He added: 'Vendors with high-risk early return product will be trying to strike the best balance between conversion and price performance to maximise returns in the current market, while others will bank on an upturn in the New Year. The fly in the ointment could be if further "unscheduled" volume de-fleets take place – even in an upturning market there will be an over-supply breakpoint.'
Mr Ward also warned that the issue of oversupply will have an impact on the price guides, saying: 'December books will have been cast weeks ago reflecting an October market and will not have anticipated the sudden shift in conditions. If downward adjustments are made for the New Year – when the marketplace is likely to be on the rise – guide prices could be well adrift by mid-January.'
However, according to BCA, there will still be pockets of high demand for the right vehicles. Mr Ward said: 'Even amongst this over-supply, any two-year-old vans will be like "gold dust" to retail buyers and will generate a lot of interest in the trade as a result. This long-term legacy of the fall in new van sales during 2008 will continue to affect the market for several years to come – next year we will experience a relative shortage of three-year old vans.'