The auction giant says that the downturn in the number of vans entering the contract hire market in the second half of 2008 means that there are fewer coming back to the market today on three-year cycles.

The situation has been exacerbated by subsequent contract extensions, causing further delay in stock reaching the market and when it does it is older, higher mileage and often poorer condition.

Duncan Ward, BCA's general manager, commercial vehicle sales, commented: 'What it means is that for the next 18 months to two years, there is a potential for the market to be short of 3 to 5-year-old one owner used LCV stock. If demand begins to surge in line with the expected economic recovery over the same period, we could see prices rise sharply in the used market.

'We are already seeing some signs of increased demand now the tranche of business failure vehicles from 2010 and earlier this year have washed through,' continued Ward. 'Many professional buyers are moving away from their traditional age and mileage profiles, either heading upstream and competing for the even scarcer late plate vehicles or looking at the best presented part-exchange vehicles coming back to market.'

Ward said that wholesale buyers will need to use every channel – physical and online – to acquire stock profitably and added: 'We are effectively at the beginning of an extended supply squeeze in the used LCV market and "Ground Zero" in volume terms is still some 18 months away.'