Manheim forecast: used van volumes to fall in 2012
The firm says that values remain stable at the moment but added that this must be seen in the light of a year-on-year volume increases of 30%.
James Davis, general manager, commercial vehicles, Manheim Remarketing, said: 'This volume spike has been driven by consolidation in the daily rental sector and other industries. The good news is that these vehicles are, in the main, the right specification, badge and in good condition. There has been some model duplication which, when combined with higher mileage and levels of damage, requires the setting of realistic initial reserve prices to ensure a swift sale'
Late-plate, nearly-new vans are in demand due to the value proposition they offer.
Davis said: 'These low-mileage vans offer a considerable saving when compared with list price, with the added bonus of immediate availability as they are not subject to manufacturer lead times. Small volume segments, such as Lutons and Tippers, are strong performers and an increasing number of utility fleets are replacing vehicles so there is a healthy level of older vehicles catering for a variety of budgets. Anything a little different with additional specification is, due to its rarity, capable of making significantly over the guide price.'
However, the 4×4 segment is under pressure as it emerges from what is traditionally its seasonally strong winter period. Davis explained: 'Fleet-spec workhorse 4x4s are a far tougher challenge than earlier in the year, especially when damaged. There is an export market for specific models.'
Looking ahead, Manheim says that the forthcoming Easter weekend followed immediately by the Royal Wedding and Bank Holiday may result in a longer seasonal softening than is usual at this time of year.
The firm also forecasts that the volume of vans in the wholesale market is expected to decrease towards the end of the year.
Davis concluded: 'In 2012 and beyond we will start to see a wholesale van volume shortfall as a result of the decline in new registrations in 2008 as the worldwide economic downturn began. New van registrations fell around 40% so this used van "stock gap" is now just around the corner. With demand expected to increase as the economy recovers, a reduction in supply will serve to place upward pressure on used van values.'