BCA Pulse: Used commercial vehicles values fall in February
The February average figure of £4,272 was the lowest recorded in the past six months and performance against Guide Prices fell by one and three-quarter points to 98.23%.
However, year-on-year, February 2012 was £126 ahead of the same month in 2011, equivalent to a 3% improvement – despite the average age and mileage rising by four months and over 6,000 miles respectively in the same period.
Duncan Ward BCA’s General manager – Commercial Vehicles, commented: 'This is the second year running that we have seen values decline in February following a strong January performance. We noted in our last report that demand softened towards the end of January and that largely set the tone for the following four weeks.'
Ward added: 'However, values remain at a much higher level than they were a year ago, despite both mileage and age rising by around 8% in that time. This is in line with our expectations – shared by Professor Peter Cooke at the Centre for Automotive Management, Buckingham University – that the market will continue to experience a relative shortage of units under five-years old in the short- to medium-term. As a result of the lower new van sales since 2008 and the trend for larger businesses to hold on to vans for longer, it may become increasingly difficult to source good quality used LCV stock and this means values are likely to remain reasonably firm as a result.'
Values in the fleet & lease LCV sector in February fell back by £160 (3.1%) to £4,948, although year-on-year values are ahead by £349 or 7.5% – a larger margin than the previous month. Interestingly, the January to February decline is almost exactly the same as in 2011, when the fall was £159 or 3.3%. Average values have been noticeably higher over the past six months, even though average mileage and age have remained largely static at around 70,000 miles and 44 months during that period. Fleet vans averaged 98.06% of CAP in February, down two points compared to January.
Part-exchange values also fell in February from £2,840 to £2,770 – a decrease of £70 or 2.4%. CAP comparisons fell by half a point to 98.5%, but outperformed fleet & lease stock despite being nearly three years older and 20,000 miles more travelled on average when sold.
Year-on-year values for part-exchange vans were ahead by £205 (7.9%) – although this was only half of the differential seen in January. Reflecting the Fleet & Lease price trend, there has been a notable uplift in average value over the past six months.
Nearly-new values fell slightly to £13,280 (down 2%) after recording a big gain in January. As always, this has to be taken in the context of the very low volumes reaching the market and the model mix factor. CAP performance fell by two points to 99%.